| 【Core Strategic Quote】 "When the 'anchor of interest' in fiat currency is submerged by the torrent of fiscal deficits, the logic of asset pricing shifts from 'pursuing nominal returns' to 'avoiding the loss of purchasing power.' All the violent ruptures in the market are merely the grand migration of capital between the collapse of the old paradigm (decay/void) and the formation of a new order (formation/stability)." |
1. Global Major Asset Class Performance and Trend Analysis Over the Past 24 Hours
Over the past 24 hours, the price movements of major global asset classes have exhibited highly divergent tug-of-war characteristics amid the interplay between sticky macro interest rates and fiscal dominance.
•Global Stock Markets (Divergence Between US and Europe / Valuation Under Pressure): US stocks closed narrowly amid a tug-of-war between Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings and the stickiness of July's core PCE exceeding expectations (MoM +0.2%). The S&P 500 consolidated at high levels, with intensified clustering around high-barrier tech giants. Major European indices closed lower, pressured by the ECB's hawkish meeting minutes. In Asia-Pacific, Japan's Nikkei 225 remained range-bound, constrained by Tokyo's core inflation accelerating to 2%.
•Global Bond Markets (Long-End U.S. Treasuries Firm / Bear Steepening Curve): The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note remained elevated within the range of 4.68%–4.72%, while the 2-year yield stood at 4.23%. Starting in September, the U.S. Treasury has expanded its long-term bond buyback program to $4 billion. However, amid the pressure of massive deficit-driven bond issuance, the term premium demanded by the market remains persistently high.
•Precious Metals (Gold Resilient at High Levels / Hard Credit Premium): Spot gold fluctuates within the range of $4,580–$4,610 per ounce, breaking free from traditional real interest rate constraints. Strong support comes from sovereign central banks' de-dollarization-driven accumulation and hedging against credit dilution (Debasement Trade).
•Crude Oil and Commodities (Geopolitical Support vs. Demand Pull): Brent crude is seesawing between $88.5–89.5 per barrel, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East's Strait of Hormuz underpinning supply, while weak global manufacturing PMI data caps upside potential.
•Foreign Exchange Market (Dollar Battles at 99 Threshold / Non-USD Currencies Fluctuate): The US Dollar Index (DXY) edged up slightly to 99.2, while USD/JPY sees repeated tug-of-war around the 158 level, with expectations of a BOJ rate hike providing underlying support.
•Cryptocurrency (BTC Breaks Through Strongly / Paradigm Established): Bitcoin (BTC) has firmly held above the $77,000 mark, with compliant capital in spot ETFs continuing to see net inflows, forming a "supra-sovereign anti-dilution" resonance with gold.
II. The "Formation, Abiding, Decay, and Void" Macro Asset Cycle Positioning Matrix
Based on the momentum of major asset classes, credit vehicles, and the evolution of macro supply-demand dynamics, the current global distribution of assets across the four stages of Eastern philosophy's "Formation, Abiding, Decay, and Emptiness" is as follows:
| Cycle stage | Corresponding core assets | Trend Structure and Momentum Characteristics | The essence of macro logic |
| 【Achieved】 (Paradigm Established) | Crypto Assets (BTC/ETH) Cutting-edge AI Infrastructure | Breaking through the bottom pivot, compliant institutional funds surged in with heavy volume, initiating the first wave of the main upward momentum. | Establish a new paradigm of supra-sovereign inflation resistance to absorb the spillover liquidity from the fiat currency system. |
| 【Stay】 (Prosperity at Its Peak) | Physical Precious Metals (Gold/Silver) - Monopoly-Level Cash Flow Assets | The trend is in a strong uptrend with shallow pullbacks and highly unified market consensus. | The central bank's de-dollarized reserve allocation is mature, serving as the ultimate risk-free safe haven. |
| 【Bad】 (Kinetic Energy Depletion) | High-valuation equities in the US and Europe, crude oil, and commodities | Index oscillates at high levels, breadth of individual stocks deteriorates, red bars shrink as top divergence looms. | The widening gap between restrictive high interest rates and slowing profit growth, with crude oil prices solely sustained by geopolitical impulses. |
| 【Empty】 (Credit Clearance) | Global long-term sovereign bonds Traditional high-debt fiat assets | Yields remain persistently high, prices continue their one-sided decline, and term premiums keep climbing. | Fiscal dominance shatters the myth of safe havens, with debt bearing the discount of trust |
3. Deep Macro-Level Driving Events and Logical Penetration
Penetrating the surface fluctuations, the core macroeconomic events and underlying mechanisms driving the global pricing system over the past 24 hours can be summarized into three main themes:
1. Signals from the Jackson Hole Symposium and the Normalization of Restrictive Interest Rates
At the 2026 Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, the Federal Reserve Chair emphasized prioritizing price stability. The 0.2% month-on-month rise in July's core PCE exceeded expectations, confirming that inflation has transitioned from a "rapid decline phase" into a "structurally sticky plateau." The prolonged high discount rate environment has locked down valuation expansion for high-valuation equity assets, trapping them under the valuation ceiling of the [bad] phase.
2. Fiscal Dominance and Sovereign Fiat Currency Dilution
Since September, the U.S. Treasury has expanded its bond buyback program to $4 billion in an attempt to stabilize long-term interest rates through official liquidity intervention. However, under the pressure of issuing $2 trillion in annual deficit bonds, the mechanism of "issuing debt with one hand and buying it back with the other" has intensified the long-term dilution of sovereign fiat currency credibility. The persistently high term premium demanded by the market has driven capital toward hard assets such as gold and Bitcoin.
3. Geopolitical Fault Lines and the "Safety Premium" in Supply Chains
The geopolitical rivalry in the Middle East's Strait of Hormuz and the anticipated barriers in international trade have brought an end to the low-inflation dividend from the post-Cold War Just-in-Time inventory system. The systemic rise in supply chain redundancy costs has not only provided a floor for commodity prices but also accelerated the strategic shift of sovereign nations globally to convert foreign exchange reserves into physical gold.
IV. Insights on Major Asset Allocation and Strategic Closure
Against the backdrop of the "formation, stasis, decay, and void" cyclical migration, portfolio construction must decisively abandon the traditional static 60/40 stock-bond strategy and implement structural defense and offense:
•Ride the [Established] Trend: Maintain a high-flexibility allocation to digital inflation-resistant assets (BTC) and leading core computing power productivity players to capture the premium of the new paradigm.
•Go with the [Flow] and Find Peace: Use physical gold as the core ballast against sovereign credit dilution, and enjoy the long-term benefits of de-dollarization.
•Avoid the Risk of [Bad]: Reduce exposure to traditionally high-valuation equities with peaking valuations and slowing earnings momentum, as well as weak-cycle commodities.
•Guard the opportunity of 【emptiness】: Maintain reverence for long-dated sovereign fixed-income assets and uphold a defensive stance with low duration until the term premium restructuring is complete.